According to @AltcoinDaily, this cycle differs because structural drivers now dominate crypto market flows, led by the launch of US spot BTC ETFs in January 2024 that introduced regulated creations and redemptions and new institutional demand, which did not exist in prior cycles, source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approval orders dated Jan 10, 2024. Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving reduced the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC at block 840000, altering miner issuance and potential sell pressure compared with earlier cycles, source: Bitcoin blockchain data via mempool.space block 840000 on Apr 20, 2024. The SEC’s May 23, 2024 approval of 19b-4 filings for spot ETH ETFs opened a new channel for institutional ETH exposure and changed the flow mix this cycle, source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approval orders dated May 23, 2024. For trading, monitoring daily ETF creations and redemptions from issuers to gauge net inflows and outflows, tracking on-chain miner balances after the halving, and following the Federal Reserve’s policy rate path to assess risk appetite can improve positioning versus prior cycles, sources: issuer disclosures from iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, on-chain analytics from Coin Metrics, and Federal Reserve FOMC statements maintaining the target range at 5.25 to 5.50 percent across 2024.

According to Francisco Rodrigues, Bitcoin is trading near $105,000 with a 1.4% decline over 24 hours, showing resilience due to corporate accumulation like Strategy adding over 10,000 BTC and institutional demand. QCP Capital analysts noted BTC's stability despite escalating Middle East tensions, with Polymarket data indicating U.S. intervention odds rising to 62%. The Senate's approval of the GENIUS Act is viewed as a structural win for crypto markets, potentially boosting sentiment. Traders are monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, expected unchanged, which could influence risk asset movements amid geopolitical risks.

According to Francisco Rodrigues, bitcoin (BTC) rose to near $107,000, gaining 1.7% in 24 hours, as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel eased oil supply fears and boosted risk assets globally. Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown cautioned that doubts over the truce's stability could renew market volatility. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a patient approach to rate cuts due to persistent inflation and tariff risks, which Bitunix analysts noted supports risk assets like crypto but requires monitoring of upcoming inflation data. Derivatives traders, including Jake O from Wintermute, expect BTC to range between $100,000 and $105,000 ahead of the June expiry, with bullish call options targeting $108,000 and $112,000.

According to James Van Straten, Bitcoin BTC is trading steadily around $105,000 despite the Federal Reserve holding interest rates unchanged and escalating Middle East conflicts, with support from corporate treasury accumulation now involving 235 entities. However, Velo data shows derivatives open interest at $55.3 billion, down from recent highs, and Deribit options flows indicate a BTC put/call ratio of 1.13, signaling trader caution. Coinglass liquidation maps highlight elevated unwinding risks near the $103K-$106K price range.

According to Crypto Rover, the US10Y bond yields are surging, which could influence Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. Traders should closely monitor how this impacts Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as changes in rates can affect liquidity and market dynamics.